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2012年6月12日 星期二

中東失守?--敘利亞為何忽然在現階段出現幾宗大屠殺

內地以下是一個網站的觀察,供參考: 
 
然而国际局势就是一盘棋,在中国的西南方向同样斗争激烈,叙利亚问题本来已经通过谈判得到解决,达成了和平协议【轉傳者按:指安南的斡旋。】,然而叙利亚突然爆发一系列大屠杀事件,现在英国美国特种部队已经有了借口进入叙利亚,加上此前的各国大使馆已经撤出叙利亚,说明美国已经决心拿下叙利亚,进而为对打击伊朗铺平道路,扼守霍尔姆斯海峡的伊朗才是美国真正的目标,美国想通过打击叙利亚进而敲打伊朗,从叙利亚事件不但可以窥探中俄的态度,更为下一步行动制定策略。

  一旦伊朗问题得到解决,美国就可以控制中东,石油美元的世界格局将再次得到维持,美国政府即使再次大量滥印美元也对美国的世界秩序构不成威胁,因为世界严重需要石油,所以美元就必须在世界横行,美元硬通货的能力将得到保障。反观中俄两国,中俄两国一个需要石油,一个拥有大量石油,结果一个失去了中东石油基地,一个失去石油定价权,两国的崛起梦也就彻底失败所以中国和俄罗斯试图推进国际货币体系改革,但都将因中东失手而彻底失败,虽然人民币已经走出国门,但因没有支撑将会被堵回来。
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新增補充:China Is Excluded From Waivers for Oil Trade With Iran
【批註:朋友轉來《China Is Excluded From Waivers for Oil Trade With Iran》一文時,附了以下註腳:
So the global hegemon says, "I give the orders. I am the decider. Every country is allowed to buy oil from Iran except China." Since China needs oil, what is China supposed to do?
Iran may be run by religious fanatics. But it's their business. We used to have a born again moron in the White House. We couldn't stop him from making foreign wars. Should we impose economic sanctions on ourselves and have Margaret Thatcher's Toy Navy to blockade New York and Maryland? The US and the UK have always tried to contain the oil flow from that country as long as one remembers. To that end, they never stop stirring up subversive activities inside Iran -- denying elected Iranian leaders the right to govern -- and engaging in acts of war -- shooting down civilian aircraft and planting viruses in Iranian computer networks.
Perhaps it's time for Obama and Hillary Clinton to switch to a new act. Apologize for their past wrong doings and curb Israel's threats to Iran and other countries in the Middle East. Another thing. Ban US and Mossad assassinations around the world in sovereign nations, domestic scumbags like Madoff excepted of course. Oddly, the International Court of Justice spends a ton of money going after African "tyrants," but it does nothing to stop massive killings in Gaza and Lebanon and criminals in others wars of occupation. That's why Cheney and George W. Bush could sleep so soundly at night. 
而下文也印證了《中東失守?》的觀察很準確。】
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China Is Excluded From Waivers for Oil Trade With Iran
By MARK LANDLER  published: June 11, 2012
WASHINGTON — Less than three weeks before stringent American sanctions intended to reduce Iran’s oil exports take effect, the Obama administration announced on Monday that it would exempt seven major importers of Iranian oil — but not China — from the measures because these countries had “significantly reduced” their oil purchases from Iran.
Administration officials said the United States was continuing to negotiate with China, the world’s No. 1 buyer of Iranian oil, after a confusing period in which Chinese purchases dropped sharply during a price dispute with Tehran but later rebounded.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton announced that the administration had issued waivers to India, Malaysia, South Korea, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey and Taiwan. They joined Japan and 10 European countries that the United States had previously said would be exempt from sanctions for six months.
“Today’s announcement underscores the success of our sanctions implementation,” Mrs. Clinton said in a statement. “By reducing Iran’s oil sales, we are sending a decisive message to Iran’s leaders: until they take concrete actions to satisfy the concerns of the international community, they will continue to face increasing isolation and pressure.”
Still, the absence of China from the waiver list indicates the hurdles the administration faces in persuading Iran’s largest customer to curtail its purchases. And it sets up a potential collision with China, which along with the United States is a member of the group of major powers that is negotiating with Iran over the future of its nuclear program.
Under legislation that President Obama signed in December, the United States must take action against countries that continue buying large volumes of crude oil through Iran’s central bank by cutting off from the American banking system the financial institutions engaged in those transactions in those countries.
China’s case is complicated, since oil analysts estimate that its purchases from Iran declined by a third during the first quarter of 2012. China was in a price dispute with Iran, however, suggesting that it was cutting back as a negotiating tactic. In April, its purchases spiked again, and the upswing continued into June. There are also reports that China has been buying oil covertly from Iran.
Administration officials noted that China had played a constructive role in the nuclear talks with Iran and voted for United Nations sanctions against Iran, even as they acknowledged that China had reservations about the sanctions’ effectiveness.
“We’ve been able to work through sanctions-related issues with China in the past, and our hope is that we’ll be able to do the same with China over the next few weeks,” said a senior administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the delicacy of the talks.
The sanctions law gives Mr. Obama two other escape hatches: he can delay the enforcement of the measures if he concludes they are disrupting the oil market, or he can issue China a waiver based on national security considerations.
On Monday, however, the White House issued a statement saying the global oil supply had loosened somewhat in April and May, after a tight period early in the year. That clears the way for full implementation of the sanctions at the end of June.
In the statement, the White House press secretary, Jay Carney, said, “There currently appears to be sufficient supply of non-Iranian oil to permit foreign countries to significantly reduce their imports of Iranian oil.” He noted that many of Iran’s customers had cut back their purchases and tried to find alternative suppliers.
The administration’s action seems calculated to keep up the pressure on Iran a week before the next round of nuclear talks is scheduled to take place in Moscow. After meetings in Istanbul and Baghdad, the talks have bogged down over demands that Iran suspend its enrichment of uranium to 20 percent and that it shut down the Fordow enrichment facility.
Experts on sanctions said they were not surprised by the administration’s decision to withhold an exemption from China.
“They don’t want to issue the exception to China now, and then face pressure to revoke it in the next 180-day period,” said Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and an expert on Iranian sanctions. Even if the volume of China’s oil purchases does not decline, some experts predict that China might be able to comply with the American sanctions by arguing that it is paying a lower price for the oil, depriving the Iranian government of much-needed revenue. China is also using channels to buy oil that go around the Central Bank of Iran, which could give it a loophole to keep buying oil without triggering the sanctions.
Despite the White House’s decision not to exempt China, Republicans in Congress criticized the exemptions it did grant.
“While many of our allies are doing the right thing by significantly decreasing crude oil purchases from Iran, those who are violating the law must be held to account,” Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida, the chairwoman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement. “There remains much that needs to be done to tighten the screws on Iran, and once again Congress will have to lead the way.”
Senator Robert Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat and a sponsor of the Iranian sanctions legislation, said he would reserve judgment on the latest waivers. But in a statement that also referred to the European Union, he said that since the president signed the law, “Iran is estimated to have lost approximately $10 billion in oil revenue, the Iranian currency has plummeted, and oil output has fallen to a 20-year low — and that is all before the U.S. and E.U. sanctions go into effect later this month.”

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