此件好看--現實中的三個謬誤
【批註：值得一看。尤其是某些說法：「中國是美國最大的債主」→因為過去十年中國的經濟發展模式是「中國借錢給美國人花」，令中國致富、美國人卻債台高築……原來是謬誤。
美國人的總開銷，只有2.7%用在「made in china」的東西上。Wal-Mart雖然滿是中國製造，可都是平價日用品。
美國最大的債主是他自己聯儲局！！而且是左手交右手：美國政府的利息還出去 → 大部份是還給聯儲局 → 然後又由聯儲局用來買美債。於是 →「中國借錢給美國人消費」、令美國欠巨債的說法不當。
※美國的總開銷，不是用在中國貨身上。
※而「故意養懶他美國人」、「借錢給美國人消費」的，不是中國，是美國政府及聯儲局──他們美國人自己！！
中國只是美國「外債」中的大債主──於美債的「總數」而言，只佔個零頭。】
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3 Big Misconceptions That Need to Die
Here are the real facts on foreign oil, the U.S. debt, and buying American.
By Morgan Housel | Motley Fool – Tue, Oct 25, 2011
At a conference in Philadelphia earlier this month, a Whartonprofessor noted that one of the country's biggest economic problems is a tsunami of misinformation. .
Here are three misconceptions that need to be put to rest.
Misconception 1): Most of what Americans spend their money on is made in China.
Fact: Just 2.7% of personal consumption expenditures go toChinese-made goods and services. 88.5% of U.S. consumer spending is onAmerican-made goods and services.
I used that statistic in an article last week, and the response from readers was overwhelming: Hogwash. People just didn't believe it.The figure comes from a Federal Reserve report. You can read it here.
A common rebuttal I got was, "How can it only be 2.7% when almost everything in Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT ) is made in China?" BecauseWal-Mart's $260 billion in U.S. revenue isn't exactly reflective ofAmerica's $14.5 trillion economy. Wal-Mart might sell a broad range of knickknacks, many of which are made in China, but the vast majority of what Americans spend their money on is not knickknacks.The Bureau of Labor Statistics closely tracks how an average American spends their money in an annual report called the Consumer Expenditure Survey. In 2010, the average American spent 34% of their income onhousing, 13% on food, 11% on insurance and pensions, 7% on health
care, and 2% on education. Those categories alone make up nearly 70%of total spending, and are comprised almost entirely of American-made goods and services (only 7% of food is imported, according to theUSDA).
Even when looking at physical goods alone, Chinese imports still account for just a small fraction of U.S. spending. Just 6.4% of nondurable goods -- things like food, clothing and toys – purchased in the U.S. are made in China; 76.2% are made in America. For durable goods -- things like cars and furniture -- 12% are made in China; 66.6% are made in America.
Another way to grasp the value of Chinese-made goods is to look at imports. The U.S. is on track to import $340 billion worth of goods from China this year, which is 2.3% of our $14.5 trillion economy. Is that a lot? Yes. Is it most of what we spend our money on? Not by along shot. Part of the misconception is likely driven by the notion that America's manufacturing base has been in steep decline.
The truth, surprising to many, is that real manufacturing output today is near an all-time high. What's dropped precipitously in recentdecades is manufacturing employment. Technology and automation has
allowed American manufacturers to build more stuff with far fewerworkers than in the past. One good example: In 1950, a U.S. Steel(NYSE: X ) plant in Gary, Ind., produced 6 million tons of steel
with 30,000 workers. Today, it produces 7.5 million tons with 5,000workers. Output has gone up; employment has dropped like a rock.
Misconception 2): We owe most of our debt to China.
Fact: China owns 7.8% of U.S. government debt outstanding.
As of August, China owned $1.14 trillion of Treasuries. Government debt stood at $14.6 trillion that month. That's 7.8%. Who owns the rest? The largest holder of U.S. debt is the federal governmentitself. Various government trust funds like the Social Security trustfund own about $4.4 trillion worth of Treasury securities. The Federal Reserve owns another $1.6 trillion. Both are unique owners: Interest
paid on debt held by federal trust funds is used to cover a portion of federal spending, and the vast majority of interest earned by the Federal Reserve is remitted back to the U.S. Treasury. The rest of
our debt is owned by state and local governments ($700 billion), private domestic investors ($3.1 trillion), and other non-Chineseforeign investors ($3.5 trillion).
Does China own a lot of our debt? Yes, but it's a qualified yes. Of all Treasury debt held by foreigners, China is indeed the largestowner ($1.14 trillion), followed by Japan ($937 billion) and the U.K.
($397 billion).
Right there, you can see that Japan and the U.K. combined own more U.S. debt than China. Now, how many times have you heard someone say that we borrow an inordinate amount of money from Japan and the U.K.? I never have. But how often do you hear some version of the "China is our banker" line? Too often, I'd say.
Misconception 3): We get most of our oil from the Middle East.
Fact: Just 9.2% of oil consumed in the U.S. comes from the Middle East.
According the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. consumes 19.2 million barrels of petroleum products per day. Of thatamount, a net 49% is produced domestically. The rest is imported.
Where is it imported from?
Only a small fraction comes from the Middle East, and that fractionhas been declining in recent years. So far this year, imports from the Persian Gulf region -- which includes Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates -- have made up 9.2% of total petroleum supplied to the U.S. In 2001, that number was 14.1%.
The U.S. imports more than twice as much petroleum from Canada and Mexico than it does from the Middle East. Add in the share produced domestically, and the majority of petroleum consumed in the U.S. comes from North America.
This isn't to be little our energy situation. The nation still relieson imports for about half of its oil. That's bad. But should the Middle East get the attention it does when we talk about oil reliance? In terms of security and geopolitical stability, perhaps. In terms of volume, probably not.
A roomful of skeptics
"People will generally accept facts as truth only if the facts agree with what they already believe," said Andy Rooney. Do these numbers fit with what you already believed? No hard feelings if they don't.
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